The Psychology Behind Trump's Foreign Policy: Canada, Ukraine, and International Relations

Introduction: How Psychology Shapes Foreign Policy

When examining the current tensions between the United States and Canada, along with the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict negotiations, a pattern emerges that can be understood through the lens of psychological analysis. Foreign policy is not merely a function of national interests and strategic calculations; it is profoundly influenced by the psychological makeup of the leaders who formulate and implement it. In the case of President Donald Trump, specific psychological traits appear to be driving an approach to international relations that has alarmed allies, emboldened adversaries, and created unprecedented friction with traditionally close partners like Canada.

This analysis examines how Trump's documented psychological conditions are manifesting in current foreign policy decisions and what this means for American international relations, national security, and economic stability. By understanding the psychological underpinnings of these diplomatic crises, we can better anticipate future actions, recognize their implications, and assess their impact on America's global standing.

Case Study: The Canada-US Tariff Dispute and "51st State" Rhetoric

Timeline of Events

The current conflict with Canada began in early 2025 when President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, then threatened to increase them to 50%. More alarmingly, Trump repeatedly suggested that Canada should become "the 51st state," most explicitly stating in a Truth Social post: "The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear." This rhetoric has escalated tensions dramatically, with Canadian officials and citizens uniformly rejecting such notions.

Canadian Member of Parliament Charlie Angus described Trump and his administration's approach as "an act of war," noting that "When you say that someone doesn't have a right to have a country, that's an act of war... When you rip up arbitrarily trade agreements, and threaten, and say you're going to break a country, that's an act of war." The economic impact has been substantial, with Angus reporting at least a 40% drop in Canadian travel to the United States, severely damaging American tourism and border communities.

Key Diplomatic Incidents

Trump's initial imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum
Threat to increase tariffs to 50% and to "permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada"
Repeated statements suggesting Canada should become the "51st state"
Contentious meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney where Trump insisted, according to reports, that "We don't need them. As a state, it's different. As a state it's much different. And there are no tariffs."
When Carney told Trump "Canada is not for sale," Trump reportedly replied, "Never say never."

Psychological Factors Driving the Canada Policy

The approach to Canada reveals several psychological patterns consistent with those identified by experts in their assessments of Trump:

Narcissistic Personality Disorder

Definition: A pattern of grandiosity, need for admiration, and lack of empathy characterized by an inflated sense of self-importance, preoccupation with fantasies of unlimited success and power, belief in one's uniqueness, excessive need for admiration, sense of entitlement, interpersonal exploitation, lack of empathy, envy of others, and arrogant behaviors.

How It Manifests in the Canada Policy:

Grandiose thinking: The idea that an entire sovereign nation with its own distinct culture and political system would simply agree to become part of the United States reflects a grandiose fantasy disconnected from reality.
Sense of entitlement: The assumption that Canada should acquiesce to American demands and sacrifice its sovereignty demonstrates a profound entitlement.
Lack of empathy: The inability to recognize or care about the profound emotional and practical impact such rhetoric has on Canadians reveals a deficit in empathy.
Zero-sum thinking: The approach treats international relations as transactions where America must "win" and others must "lose," rather than seeking mutually beneficial outcomes.

"With narcissistic leadership, international relations become personal transactions rather than strategic partnerships. The narcissistic leader cannot conceive of relationships except in terms of dominance and submission."

— Dr. Lance Dodes, Boston Psychoanalytic Society

Cognitive Decline/Executive Function Deficits

Definition: A gradual deterioration in cognitive abilities including reasoning, memory, attention, and problem-solving, often manifesting as simplified thinking, impulsive decision-making, difficulty comprehending complex information, and reduced ability to anticipate consequences of actions.

How It Manifests in the Canada Policy:

Simplistic solutions: The notion that complex trade issues could be solved by Canada becoming a state reflects overly simplistic thinking about complex international systems.
Impulsive policy shifts: The rapid imposition, doubling, and then partial reversal of tariffs demonstrates impulsive decision-making without consideration of consequences.
Difficulty processing factual information: CNN fact-checking identified numerous false claims about Canada, including about trade deficits, banking regulations, and tariff rates, indicating difficulty processing or retaining accurate information.
Reduced capacity for nuanced thinking: The black-and-white approach to a traditionally nuanced relationship suggests a diminished capacity for complex diplomatic thinking.

"[Trump] exhibits cognitive decline in reasoning, memory, and processing speed, consistent with his advanced age."

— Dr. Jeffrey Kuhlman, former White House physician for Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama

Transactional View of Relationships

Definition: A tendency to view all human interactions, including diplomatic relationships, as business transactions with winners and losers rather than as complex, multifaceted relationships built on mutual respect, trust, and shared values.

How It Manifests in the Canada Policy:

Reducing alliance to economic terms: The emphasis on trade deficits and tariffs while ignoring the security, cultural, and diplomatic aspects of the relationship.
Coercive tactics: Using tariffs as leverage to force compliance rather than engaging in mutually respectful negotiation.
Dismissal of relationship history: Disregarding the long history of cooperation, shared values, and mutual support between the two nations.
Focus on immediate gains: Prioritizing short-term economic concessions over long-term strategic partnership benefits.

"We want to make our own cars. We don't really want cars from Canada, and we put tariffs on cars from Canada, and at a certain point it won't make economic sense for Canada to build those cars. And we don't want steel from Canada because we're making our own steel."

— President Trump, according to NPR reporting on White House meeting with PM Carney

Case Study: The Ukraine-Russia Negotiations

Timeline of Recent Events

On May 19, 2025, President Trump held a two-hour call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. This followed previous calls in February and March where the two leaders discussed potential paths to ending the conflict. After the May call, Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine would "immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire," though no specific timeline, location, or framework was established. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke with Trump before and after the Putin call, expressed concerns that his country's interests might be sidelined in these negotiations.

Key Diplomatic Developments

February 2025: First direct call between Trump and Putin since the 2022 invasion, lasting 90 minutes
March 2025: Second call resulting in agreement on limited infrastructure ceasefire
May 10, 2025: European leaders including France's Macron and Britain's Starmer call for immediate 30-day ceasefire
May 19, 2025: Two-hour call between Trump and Putin, followed by announcement of immediate negotiations
After the call, Trump praised the "tone and spirit" of the conversation and mentioned potential "largescale TRADE" with Russia once the conflict ends

Psychological Factors Driving Ukraine-Russia Approach

The approach to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations demonstrates several psychological patterns that align with expert assessments:

Grandiose Expectations

Definition: An unrealistic belief in one's special abilities and power to achieve outcomes that others cannot, often accompanied by an overestimation of one's negotiating prowess and influence, and a dismissal of complex systemic challenges.

How It Manifests in the Ukraine-Russia Approach:

Personalization of complex geopolitics: The belief that a personal relationship with Putin can override fundamental geopolitical conflicts and Russia's imperial ambitions in Ukraine.
Overconfidence in negotiating skills: The assertion that Trump alone can solve a conflict that has defied resolution by multiple international diplomatic efforts.
Dismissal of expert concerns: Ignoring warnings from diplomats, including former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink who resigned over the administration's approach.
Focus on relationship over substance: Emphasizing the "excellent" tone of conversations with Putin rather than concrete progress on ending Russian aggression.

"The grandiose individual genuinely believes they possess special abilities that others lack. In diplomatic contexts, this can lead to dangerous overconfidence and a dismissal of expert advice, particularly when dealing with adversaries skilled at manipulation."

— Excerpt from psychological assessment in the artifact "Trump's Mental State: A Psychological Analysis of Recent Behavior"

Susceptibility to Flattery and Manipulation

Definition: A heightened vulnerability to praise, flattery, and personal attention that can be exploited by others, particularly those skilled in psychological manipulation. This susceptibility can override objective analysis, threat assessment, and strategic interests.

How It Manifests in the Ukraine-Russia Approach:

Emphasis on personal chemistry: According to reports, Putin congratulated Trump on the birth of his grandson and the two leaders addressed each other by first names during the May 19 call.
Preferential treatment of authoritarian figures: More positive and deferential attitude toward Putin compared to democratic allies who are more critical.
Susceptibility to symbolic gestures: Reports that Russian authorities temporarily removed an anti-American installation from in front of the U.S. embassy in Moscow after the call.
Unreciprocated concessions: While Trump has praised Putin, arranged multiple calls, and publicly expressed eagerness for a deal, Putin has maintained his demands regarding Ukraine's territory and offered only limited concessions.

"Trump will be getting taken in the negotiations over Ukraine by Putin... The pattern is clear from his business dealings and previous diplomatic engagements: flattery and personal chemistry override strategic analysis."

— Dr. John Gartner, former professor at Johns Hopkins University

Impulsive Decision-Making

Definition: A pattern of making significant decisions quickly, without adequate consideration of consequences, alternatives, or expert input, often driven by emotional reactions rather than strategic analysis.

How It Manifests in the Ukraine-Russia Approach:

Announcement of "immediate" negotiations: Declaring the start of negotiations without established frameworks, terms, or even confirmed venues.
Limited consultation with allies: European officials expressed surprise at the February call, indicating they received no advance notice of diplomacy affecting their security interests.
Rapid shifts in position: Moving from supporting Ukraine to expressing frustration with "both sides of the conflict" within a short timeframe.
Premature declarations of progress: Announcing advances in peace negotiations before substantive agreements have been reached.

The former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, who resigned in April, wrote that "The policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia," adding that "Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement."

The Broader Pattern: Psychological Conditions Affecting International Relations

Beyond specific cases like Canada and Ukraine, Trump's psychological profile appears to be shaping a broader approach to international relations that is concerning allies and emboldening adversaries. Several psychological conditions are particularly influential:

Black-and-White Thinking

Definition: Also known as dichotomous or all-or-nothing thinking, this is a cognitive distortion where situations are viewed in absolute, binary terms without acknowledging complexity, nuance, or middle ground. People, countries, or situations are categorized as entirely good or entirely bad.

How It Manifests in Foreign Policy:

Division of countries into "winners" and "losers": Categorizing nations based on trade balances rather than seeing the complex, mutually beneficial nature of international trade.
Personalization of diplomatic relationships: Viewing countries through the lens of their leaders' personal relationship with Trump rather than based on strategic interests or democratic values.
Simplistic solutions to complex problems: The "51st state" proposal, like other policy suggestions, reflects a tendency to seek simplistic solutions to multifaceted international challenges.
Increasing use of absolute language: Studies have documented a 13% increase in Trump's use of all-or-nothing terms such as "always" and "never" compared to his speech patterns in 2016.

Behavioral Disinhibition

Definition: A reduced capacity to restrain impulsive, inappropriate, or counterproductive behaviors, particularly under stress or when faced with criticism. This often manifests as verbal aggression, unfiltered commentary, and difficulty maintaining traditional diplomatic norms.

How It Manifests in Foreign Policy:

Norm-breaking diplomatic communications: Publicly threatening allies through social media rather than through established diplomatic channels.
Impulsive policy reversals: Rapid implementation, escalation, and then partial reversal of Canadian tariffs based on momentary reactions rather than strategic planning.
Disregard for traditional alliance structures: Willingness to damage NATO unity by pursuing unilateral negotiations with Russia.
Verbal attacks on allied leaders: Public criticism and threatening language directed at democratically elected leaders of traditional allies.

Need for Constant Affirmation

Definition: An excessive and persistent desire for admiration, approval, and validation that drives behavior and decision-making, often leading to a preference for those who provide adulation over those who offer critical but necessary feedback.

How It Manifests in Foreign Policy:

Preference for authoritarian leaders: Greater comfort with and praise for authoritarian figures like Putin who strategically offer personal flattery.
Discomfort with democratic allies: Tension with democratic leaders who, due to their own domestic political constraints and democratic values, cannot offer unconditional praise.
Emphasis on personal reception: Focus on how foreign leaders treat Trump personally rather than on substantive policy outcomes.
Conflation of national interests with personal standing: Tendency to view foreign policy success in terms of personal treatment rather than advancement of American strategic interests.

Consequences for American Foreign Policy and National Security

Immediate Impact on U.S.-Canada Relations

The psychological factors driving the approach to Canada have already resulted in significant damage to one of America's most important relationships:

Economic damage: The tariff war is harming American businesses, particularly in border communities dependent on Canadian tourism.
Border security cooperation risks: Diminished goodwill threatens the extensive security cooperation that protects America's northern border.
Intelligence sharing concerns: Strained relations may impact the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, crucial for U.S. national security.
Permanent damage to trust: The suggestion that Canada should surrender its sovereignty has created deep-seated resentment that may persist for generations.

Strategic Risks in the Ukraine-Russia Negotiations

The psychological vulnerabilities evident in the Ukraine approach create several significant risks:

Potential for exploitation: Putin, a former KGB officer trained in psychological manipulation, may exploit Trump's susceptibility to flattery to secure concessions that damage U.S. and European interests.
Weakening of NATO: The unilateral approach to negotiations with Russia undermines NATO unity and may encourage further Russian aggression.
Moral hazard: Pressuring Ukraine to accept territorial concessions would signal to aggressors worldwide that military conquest will be rewarded, threatening the rules-based international order.
Damage to U.S. credibility: Abandoning Ukraine would devastate America's reputation as a reliable security partner, potentially driving more countries to align with China and Russia.

Broader International Relations Implications

Beyond specific cases, the psychological conditions affecting foreign policy are reshaping America's global position:

Shifting International Perception:

Declining trust in American leadership: Allies are increasingly hesitant to rely on U.S. commitments given the impulsive and transactional approach to longstanding partnerships.
Accelerating multipolarity: Traditional allies are developing independent capabilities and alternative partnerships as hedges against U.S. unreliability.
Emboldened adversaries: Countries like Russia and China perceive opportunities to advance their interests as American leadership becomes more erratic.
Economic realignment: Trading partners are diversifying their economic relationships to reduce dependence on the United States.

"Soon, America will stand alone."

— Charlie Angus, Canadian Member of Parliament

Conclusion: The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy Crisis

The current tensions with Canada and the approach to Ukraine-Russia negotiations are not merely policy disagreements but manifestations of specific psychological conditions that are shaping America's role in the world. The combination of narcissistic personality traits, cognitive decline, impulsivity, black-and-white thinking, and susceptibility to manipulation has created a foreign policy approach that is simultaneously alienating allies and creating openings for adversaries.

What makes this situation particularly concerning is the diminished role of institutional guardrails. In previous administrations, the bureaucracy of government - career diplomats, national security professionals, and cabinet officials - could moderate the impact of presidential psychology on foreign policy. However, the current administration has sidelined many of these institutional checks, allowing psychological factors to directly influence international relations with minimal moderation.

The result is a foreign policy increasingly detached from strategic calculation and more directly reflective of psychological needs and limitations. As MP Charlie Angus's warning suggests, this approach risks leaving America increasingly isolated in a dangerous world, with diminished influence and fewer reliable partners.

Understanding the psychological dimensions of current foreign policy is not merely an academic exercise but an essential component of anticipating risks, protecting American interests, and working to preserve the international relationships that have underpinned American security and prosperity for generations.